IHS Global Insight’s analysts have been providing comprehensive analysis, forecasts and data on the automotive industry for over 30 years. Here is their latest flash report.
World Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
North America
Recent monthly U.S. sales have reflected a moderate release of pent-up demand. Coupled with the record-high age of the vehicle fleet, the current situation could provide a firm base for U.S. monthly sales levels through 2011.
Western Europe
For 2010, our forecast has been slightly upgraded due to a combination of better macroeconomics conditions (Germany, notably) and continued incentives activity (from OEM or public source). In the longer run, though, the region should continue to face severe headwinds (austerity budgets have been multiplying lately and unemployment remains as high as consumer confidence is low).
Eastern Europe
Russian perspectives are clearly improving. In the short term, the scrapping and loan subsidy programmes (on locally built models) are undeniably accelerating the market's recovery. In the medium term, better economic prospects (GDP growth in the 3.5-5% range, credit normalising, etc.) should naturally help light-vehicles sales.
Asia
In Japan, 2010 should end positively: current sales are suffering from the end of the scrappage programme but this should not offset the good results registered until August.
In China, the sales momentum is still intact for both car and light-commercial vehicle sales. As impressive proof, year-to-October 2010 passenger car sales have already surpassed the volume achieved for full-year 2009.
In India, the ongoing festive season keeps propelling car sales, with increasing delivery time for the most popular models.
Middle East and Africa
In South Africa, the new CO2 regulation is slowly being implemented. Impact on sales should only become apparent from 2011 on.
The Gulf countries have now emerged from the crisis, and their light-vehicle sales are rising accordingly.
South America
Our regional outlook held as expected, with strong economic momentum and great credit conditions driving the market forward.
Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
|
November Forecast |
October Forecast |
Forecast Change vs. Previous Month |
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| NORTH AMERICA | 13.8 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.057 | -0.002 | -0.004 |
| United States | 11.5 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.059 | -0.001 | -0,003 |
| EUROPE | 18.2 | 18.3 | 19.3 | 17.9 | 18.1 | 19.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.272 | 0.175 | -0.013 |
| West Europe | 14.3 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.111 | 0.012 | -0.052 |
| Germany | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| United Kingdom | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| France | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -0.011 | -0.003 | -0.014 |
| Italy | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.011 | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Spain | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -1.6 | -2.8 | 0.008 | -0.017 | -0.035 |
| East Europe | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.160 | 0.164 | 0.039 |
| Russia | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 0.067 | 0.099 | 0.086 |
| ASIA | 30.0 | 32.2 | 35.0 | 29.4 | 31.4 | 33.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 0.578 | 0.801 | 1.400 |
| Japan | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.013 | 0.052 | 0.051 |
| China | 16.9 | 18.4 | 20.5 | 16.5 | 17.9 | 19.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 0.365 | 0.499 | 1.060 |
| South Korea | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.008 | -0.008 | -0.014 |
| India | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 0.171 | 0.236 | 0.273 |
| MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 0.074 | -0.019 | -0.036 |
| SOUTH AMERICA | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.042 | 0.064 | 0.045 |
| Brazil | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.033 | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| TOTAL WORLD | 71.5 | 75.9 | 82.4 | 70.5 | 74.9 | 81.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.988 | 1.015 | 1.406 |
World Light Vehicle Production Forecast
Global Forecast Changes
Global production figures have again been revised up due to strong year-to-date figures from national associations and overall macroeconomic figures that—besides Europe—have been improving overall output.
The bright stars remain Asia, with a 2.1% revision in 2010 (China accounts for the largest chunk of that figure), followed by Russia, up 1.5%; and, to certain extent, the United States, up 0.8%.
Also worth noting is that even though the mix of markets has changed, total production volumes are targeted to reach 73-million units in 2010—an all-time record.
North America
North American light-vehicle production was revised up by 60,000 units in 2010 and nearly 200,000 units in 2011 because of better-than-expected macroeconomic figures, especially for job generation and consumer confidence—two key factors for the North American recovery.
Europe
In West Europe, the two bright spots have been posted by the United Kingdom, where an upsurge in production from Jaguar and Land Rover and an increase in Nissan's output have led us to increase the overall production trend in the country. For Germany, external demand for premium vehicles, especially from China, has also put production figures in the country on the upward trend.
In East Europe, the big news continues to be the Russian scrappage scheme and its impact on the country's vehicle production. Production volumes have been revised upwards by 1.5% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011.
Asia
China: Light-vehicle production in the country was once again revised upward for the forecasted period. Being the short-term forecast, the largest increase was 2.8%, or 454,000 units in 2010, showing that the market is everything but out of breath in order to sustain such demand increases.
India: Only minor adjustments were made this time for 2010. The big increase of nearly 150,000 units comes in 2011, reflecting the higher expectation we now have for the market.
Light-Vehicle Product Forecast(1) Includes double counting (2) Net of double counting
|
November Forecast |
October Forecast |
Forecast Change vs. Previous Month |
| Region (1) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 11.8 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.067 | 0.197 | 0.078 |
| United States | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.060 | 1.131 | 0.067 |
| EUROPE | 19.1 | 19.5 | 20.1 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 20.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -1.1 | 0.030 | 0.192 | -0.214 |
| West Europe | 13.4 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -1.5 | 0.041 | 0.092 | -0.210 |
| Germany | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 0.021 | 0.142 | -0.022 |
| United Kingdom | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| France | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | -1.4 | -2.0 | 0.014 | -0.033 | -0.050 |
| Italy | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -9.0 | -0.001 | -0.004 | -0.079 |
| Spain | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -4.0 | -0.001 | -0.016 | -0.083 |
| East Europe | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | -0.2 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.011 | 0.100 | -0.004 |
| Russia | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.019 | 0.026 | -0.005 |
| ASIA | 36.7 | 39.1 | 42.3 | 35.9 | 38.5 | 41.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.745 | 0.577 | 0.686 |
| Japan | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.122 | 0.014 | -0.046 |
| China | 16.5 | 18.0 | 19.9 | 16.0 | 17.7 | 19.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.454 | 0.238 | 0.457 |
| South Korea | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 0.047 | 0.049 | 0.103 |
| India | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.002 | 0.148 | 0.068 |
| MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SOUTH AMERICA | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -2.0 | 0.035 | 0.009 | -0.095 |
| Brazil | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -2.2 | 0.002 | -0.005 | -0.078 |
| TOTAL WORLD (2) | 73.0 | 76.4 | 82.4 | 72.1 | 75.5 | 81.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.836 | 0.922 | 0.426 |
Japan: Production has been revised upward for 2010 and 2011, mainly because of the increase in exports demand from developing ASEAN markets and, to some extent, North America. The increase in external demand is expected to offset negative sales in the country, which are a payback effect from the scrappage scheme that was at full steam earlier this year.
South Korea: Light-vehicle output in the market was again revised upward due to a better recovery in North America and from developing markets.
South America
South American output has been kept at previous levels given the good ratio between year-to-date figures and the overall forecast. The big revision was done from 2012 onwards, where a series of spending cuts are expected to dampen consumption in the region, especially in Brazil.
Light-Vehicle Product Forecast - Top 12 OEMs(1) Includes double counting (2) Net of double counting
|
November Forecast |
October Forecast |
Forecast Change vs. Previous Month |
| OEM(1) |
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
| Toyota |
8.3
|
8.6
|
9.1
|
8.2
|
8.3
|
8.9
|
1.4
|
3.4
|
2.7
|
0.111
|
0.284
|
0.240
|
| VW-Porsche |
7.5
|
7.8
|
8.2
|
7.4
|
7.6
|
8.2
|
1.2
|
2.2
|
-0.4
|
0.087
|
0.166
|
-0.032
|
| Ford - Mazda |
6.6
|
6.8
|
7.3
|
6.5
|
6.6
|
7.3
|
1.0
|
2.4
|
0.4
|
0.068
|
0.159
|
0.030
|
| GM |
7.1
|
7.2
|
7.9
|
7.0
|
7.2
|
8.1
|
1.1
|
0.1
|
-2.3
|
0.076
|
0.006
|
-0.184
|
| Renault - Nissan |
6.7
|
6.9
|
7.5
|
6.5
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
2.1
|
-0.8
|
-0.3
|
0.139
|
-0.055
|
-0.024
|
| Hyundai |
6.1
|
6.5
|
6.8
|
6.0
|
6.3
|
6.6
|
0.9
|
2.7
|
3.6
|
0.057
|
0.172
|
0.237
|
| Honda |
3.7
|
3.8
|
4.0
|
3.6
|
3.7
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
1.7
|
-1.4
|
0.047
|
0.062
|
-0.056
|
| PSA |
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
3.5
|
3.4
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.054
|
0.031
|
0.005
|
| Fiat Group |
2.4
|
2.6
|
2.8
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
2.8
|
-0.5
|
-0.6
|
-2.1
|
-0.013
|
-0.015
|
-0.060
|
| Suzuki |
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
3.0
|
0.7
|
-3.6
|
-4.9
|
0.019
|
-0.102
|
-0.150
|
| BMW |
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
0.011
|
0.028
|
0.013
|
| Daimler AG |
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.8
|
0.3
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
0.005
|
0.026
|
0.033
|
| TOTAL WORLD OEMs (2) |
73.0
|
76.4
|
82.4
|
72.1
|
75.5
|
81.9
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
0.836
|
0.922
|
0.426
|